Will US leave NATO by June 30?

$577,679 Vol.

Jun 30, 2025

Yes

2% chance 3%

Source: Polymarket.com

Order Book

Rules

Additional context

Updated Feb 20

Per the rules “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO”. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The US's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The US must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$577,679

End Date

Jun 30, 2025

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Comments (31)

Top Holders

Activity

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Dementia.Patient

2mo ago

To leave NATO the US needs a 2/3 Senate approval or a resolution of congress. Dem's won't let that happen.

Car

2mo ago

@Dementia.Pat...

thats what people think. Truth is, nobdoy really knows if thats needed. Trump could technically decide it himself.

hlavny-slovensky...

2mo ago

There is no chance of US NATO withdrawal

dangus23

2mo ago

its happening tonight

Trumputin

2mo ago

If the US leave NATO, then Ukraine will join NATO. So a fair peace finally comes and Trump is the clear winner. Ukraine gets security guarantees, Zelensky steps out, and this exactly is what Putin and Trump want.

capndaz

1mo ago

@Trumputin

yea right , Putin wants nato on his doorstep . what universe your living in ?

Trumputin

2mo ago

So it's quite possible we may lose this bet. The US might join BRICS in the near future.

johnabraham

2mo ago

@Trumputin

Dumbest shit ive ever heard

Trumputin

2mo ago

@johnabraham

Don't underestimate Donald Trump.

Trumputin

2mo ago

"The withdrawal of the US from NATO is one of Russia's requirements of signing a peace deal" said Lavrov during the latest press conference at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

mRasska

2mo ago

What if he announces it today? DDD "TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG. I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!"

debased

2mo ago

wtf are you guys smoking?

amshalem

2mo ago

@debased

There is xontradiction of interest with Turkey... US may act independently without the requirement of NATO !

emaminek

2mo ago

@debased

shhh let the yes holders dream and keep pumping

X9504

2mo ago

The USA obviously isn’t withdrawing from NATO

amshalem

2mo ago

It seems it will be annonced today... that is tge huge info of Trump of today !

Thestain

2mo ago

@amshalem

yeah this wouldn't surprise me. All of europe is already starting to distance either as a counter measure or they already know to sure it's coming

mRasska

2mo ago

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1896259773068378122

mRasska

2mo ago

@mRasska

USA doesn't give a f### about 'em as well. I think, Trump is cooking something, maybe Europe already knows.

emaminek

2mo ago

time to buy more no

AKallday

2mo ago

We don't need NATO we are surrounded by two HUGE beautiful oceans!

emaminek

2mo ago

@AKallday

thanks for your donation.

CoffeeLover

2mo ago

No way! Leaving NATO would be dumb af, they are never going to do that, Elon was just trolling guys

VoiVei

3mo ago

Never before June 30. But once he has convinced Europe to step up their defence spendings, Trump will try to leave, telling congress "look at Europe, they have it under control" and then congress agrees to it.

Akoc

3mo ago

It would be astonishing if the USA were to leave a military alliance in which they alone are always the commander-in-chief. The SACEUR is the military supreme commander responsible for the planning, preparation and command of all NATO operations authorized by the NATO Council at the strategic command level. This makes him the highest-ranking soldier within NATO. He was, is and always will be from the USA.

emaminek

4mo ago

Even if trump truly wanted to leave NATO, which would be probably one of the biggest blunders for America in the 21st century, he still couldn't do it as the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 prohibits trump from unilaterally leaving NATO on behalf of the USA without the approval of congress. Free money

CoffeeLover

2mo ago

@emaminek

Fake news!

Gena🐊

5mo ago

We need clarification, what if NATO is finnaly defeated in battle before the deadline?

emaminek

4mo ago

not happening lol

Guwop

2mo ago

@Gena🐊

🤦🏽

Porx

5mo ago

Trump can easily do this

Will US leave NATO by June 30?

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