US recession in 2025?

$8,046,863 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

0123456789

% chance

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US recession in 2025?

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Volume

$8,046,863

End Date

Feb 28, 2026

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Holders

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

DarthPaul

1h ago

"NO" is literally money in the bank after today

mekanical

3h ago

For everyone wondering why we keep getting positive prints and stock ATHs after tariffs and global debt/war chaos: please see a global total m2 chart. Cash is king.

DarthPaul

4h ago

When thi OBBB is signed today, you can kiss any chance of a recession goodbye!

rc.00

4h ago

Massive drop in unemployment today, Yes fair value is 0%

nilsdub

2d ago

Unfortunately for all the YES's, the definition of a recession is manipulable. Yes officially it's "Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth." However GDP is an imperfect statistical measure used by governments to make claims rather than inform the public. The odds are stacked against the YESes in this post-truth economy.

efesis

3d ago

Don't bet on this site. It's all a scam. Despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that 'No." https://protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-polymarket-dispute/

🍄TheMushroomGuy

5d ago

Trump killing Canada trade deal, impact of tariffs coming in the next months, higher prices will impact demand... economic data in the coming weeks and months will be terrible. Expect NFP easy below 100k next week

mekanical

3d ago

@🍄TheMushroo...

Odds of negative q3 gdp print collapsed in june: https://polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025?tid=1751323921618. Q4 will have fed interest rate cut tailwinds. Gas prices are down from a year ago. I eagerly await your "terrible" data as the nasdaq prints new all time highs.

mekanical

3h ago

@🍄TheMushroo...

Ay what happened to that jobs data, 145k print. Any hope left in the Yes camps?

outcome

6d ago

6 months left of the year, 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth... It's sorta over yes holders, unless you deem the next 6 months to be the bleakest in recent history. I would not be paying close to 30c here. More like 2c.

🍄TheMushroomGuy

7d ago

Q2 will be positive, no doubt about that... but Q3 and Q4 the effects of higher prices, tariffs and slowdown will arrive... recession odds should be in the high 30s imho... i see it 40 yes - 60 no.

Nate0000

9d ago

People are forgetting ... Nothing ever happens.

vegeta

9d ago

How do you be in the inner circle of deciding what the truth is on Uma or just to here some shred of what they discussing as their next scam

Zvc.296

12d ago

Please let WW3 break out, so I can cash out🤑🤑🤑

Davide0440

11d ago

@Zvc.296

darvishfan

14d ago

bro we're def in a recession, I can't get a damned job working at mickey D's lol

MANFRED

14d ago

I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead of forty My opinion is NO as many factors reduce the chance of this happening see the rules the attack must penetrate and not be neutralized Technical Limitations Fordow is underground protected by concrete and rock built to resist drones and conventional bombs Only a bunkerbuster bomb like GBU fifty seven MOP could destroy it These bombs are rare risky and their failure would hurt Trump politically He is unlikely to use them unless under extreme pressure Political and Geopolitical Context Many Republicans MAGA and Congress members want to avoid another war Trump prefers to avoid a long conflict or new fronts with Russia and China Russia and others warn of major escalation and nuclear risk US intel says Iran is not actively making nuclear weapons so justification is weak.

darvishfan

14d ago

@MANFRED

bro, keep it hush hush king

darvishfan

14d ago

@MANFRED

we don't need the normies to know about the good markets

Us.official

14d ago

I possess some insider knowledge, and I’m in it for the cash, if you know what I mean.

MANFRED

15d ago

Take a look at Iran's bet that it will end uranium enrichment before August. It's wonderful; the option is NOT significantly undervalued. Just read the rules and draw your own conclusion

Aura5345

16d ago

Donate if ur gonna win this bet

0x1881ad6e231a14...

17d ago

How high will this spike if Fordow is bombed tonight?

NOway

17d ago

I lost all.. can any kind guy share me a dollar for last hope?...

askdjfhklasjh

16d ago

@NOway

you lost 400 dollars, while trading with 70k. lol

Kissmybutt

13d ago

@NOway

There is no hope

porktato

18d ago

everything always happen

askdjfhklasjh

18d ago

A lot of people are underestimating how quickly a recession can happen… It’s slow at first, then the tipping point is reached and it’s out of control. We have not yet reached that tipping point

FortniteRobloxFr...

19d ago

Israel ruins everything

sethtrades

18d ago

@FortniteRobl...

Trust me gng youre not down 2k because of israel

TheBestBets

19d ago

Hi! If someone would like to gift me any amount, that would be much appreciated! I just started out and need someone to believe in me.

sethtrades

18d ago

@TheBestBets

There bro someone gave me 50 cents a few weeks ago keep the change

TheBestBets

18d ago

@sethtrades

What do you mean?

🍄TheMushroomGuy

19d ago

Q3 and Q4 are likely to suffer from Trump stupid policies regarding tariffs. Odds of recession will probably jump to 50% once Q2 result is behind, that is just a short term effect.

🍄TheMushroomGuy

20d ago

With oil surging and the potential closure of strait of hormutz, recession odds should increase

JD.VaNCE

22d ago

Don't forget to say "Thank you." :)

MiaMeow🐱🕌🌙🧕

24d ago

better price - https://polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025/negative-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025

jruk

24d ago

Can someone tip me 35c I need it for a long shot bet I'll send you back 50x the tip if I hit it (I'm serious)

AntoshaLovesGPT

25d ago

Theres no way were gonna be in recession in this economy where everything grows stable and companies have high earnings...

ProfessionalDege...

27d ago

The crappiest thing about poly is worrying which markets are rigged by whales luckily this shouldn't be possible for this

skinner

26d ago

@Professional...

choose markets which are hard to rig, imo announcement markets are most likely to get rigged

tungtungtungtung...

28d ago

Interesting, Elon Musk claims that tariffs gonna cause a recession this year. Any Musk believers?

Abebets1996

28d ago

Im I’m in the USA. I opened the account and mentioned US people cant trade this but it lets me add money? Have any if you in the US have issues??

anonmuskus

28d ago

burrying your money until 28 of feb 2026 is sick

🍄TheMushroomGuy

28d ago

@anonmuskus

losing them it is even worse

🍄TheMushroomGuy

28d ago

Odds of a recession will probably go in the 35c range after musk comment

🍄TheMushroomGuy

28d ago

ELON MUSK The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year

Luigi1010

28d ago

Tipping me will not improve your portfolio. But it might improve your karma score in the multiverse.

TrapCityDoge

28d ago

how long do we need to hold it get pay out?

askdjfhklasjh

28d ago

@TrapCityDoge

You can sell anytime. But it will only resolve under the Rules. Go read them

rizzlerpaddi

29d ago

can someone tip me 1 dollar? just one

degengamblerlol

29d ago

damn im up 97% thx for the money, nothing ever happens

Female-Mime

29d ago

@degengambler...

you think no??

Wide-Glance

1mo ago

This prolly my easiest bet of my life

Lafam

30d ago

@Wide-Glance

What you putting 😂